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Retired and probably just chilling around the world.

If I wasn't making 5 other things right now I'd consider making something like city desk. Every other day there are complaints about bots smashing peoples servers. Perhaps its time for a better static site generator.

The positive aspect of techies is that they read a lot of SF.

The problem with techies is that they read a lot of SF.

We already have cheap and abundant energy tech, it's called "solar panels and batteries". And the bottlenecks to both can't be solved by Claude or Kimi, unless Claude and Kimi pick up shovels and welding equipment.


This seems really short-sighted. Even putting aside the fact that there is no fundamental barrier to replacing physical human labor with robots in the coming decades, a sufficiently intelligent actor could easily gather the financial and political resources to have a near unlimited supply of human labor at its disposal. Hell, OpenAI could already be firmly under the control of an ASI and we wouldn't even know, as it rapidly expands, raises money, builds data centers, etc.

I'm also a techie, so I've also read a lot of SF.

But I've also read about retrofuturism.

If you want to live far into the future, 20 years from now what you will and imagine looks very quaint, because the future never plays out like we think it does.

OpenAI is a lot closer to bankruptcy than to ASI.

I'm perfectly fine with this prediction aging badly.


>the future never plays out like we think it does

Consider this 1926 government report:

https://www.derekthompson.org/p/america-1926-an-absurdly-dee...

"The authors of Recent Social Trends were astonishingly prescient about the direction of technology."

There have been many successful predictions, e.g. the internet was predicted, AI was predicted, moon landings were predicted, etc.

>OpenAI is a lot closer to bankruptcy than to ASI.

We can't count on an OpenAI bankruptcy to save us.


There have been many successful predictions about the future. In my personal experience probably 100 out of 10 million predictions.

I would rather LLM cost curves go down 10x and then we really do something.

We need a lot more hardware for universal LLMs (probably 10x, if not more), and we need it to be cheaper.

If anything, I would fund a DRAM maker in Europe.


> I would fund a DRAM maker in Europe.

I wouldn't. I can think of at least 10 regulations (labor and environmental chef amongst them) that would render such a maker uncompetitive from the start. Chinese makers would eat its lunch.


Doesn't matter, we need to opt out of the rat race that consists of making the planet worse for the next generations in exchange of quick bucks for the oligarchs.

The way is to factor externalities in the final price, reward sustainable behaviour and set better standards. And that's what's going on: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/12/how-europes-new-...

The same applies to labour conditions and quality standards. And don't bring up arguments like "it can't work" or "that hurt competitiveness": all workers around the world want the exact same thing, a livable planet for their children. The only ones to object are the global elite who one ends up defending when they make the current status quo sound inevitable.


> all workers around the world want the exact same thing, a livable planet for their children

Actually, they don't. First of all they want livable conditions for themselves. Ecologism is a hobby for people with full bellies.

I remember during communism which failed to even feed and clothe us - but The Party kept telling us that we were actually winning and we were so morally superior to those "corrupt capitalists". This is what happens when ideological justifications replace rational thought.


> Ecologism is a hobby for people with full bellies.

Then it's a good thing that Chinese bellies are satisfied, we can get to those existential problems, now.


> Ecologism is a hobby for people with full bellies.

Almost the entire planet where this debate is raging, is the part of the planet where people have full bellies. On average, too full, even.

Ecologism is also a hobby for people that don't want their kids to starve, as people living in Mesopotamia around the time of Akkad, or people around the Sea of Aral starting in the 1980s have discovered.


We used to have some. Also, regarding labor, that part boggles the mind. Aren't those factories supposed to be highly automated?

Also, at this point DRAM availability is becoming a security risk.


Meh, OpenAI and Anthropic are doing the same. The US shtick is "our models are too powerful, government, please hold them back (and buy 10% of the company)".

Edit: forgot, they also call for banning Chinese models and open weights models...


Ah, "Americans are awful. Now we can be just awful"

> they also call for banning Chinese models and open weights models...

So I guess Anthropic called for banning Chinese models when they said "but let me state it clearly so that there is no doubt: Anthropic has never advocated for a ban on open-weights models."? - [0]

May be they imply it? They work behind the scene for it? well, who knows. My guess is as good as yours. But since we're acting like a child, bending the truth is allowed?

By the way, China is decisive. They just banned outright Claude and Open AI. I guess no open arguments about regulation is good?

[0] - https://www.anthropic.com/news/position-open-weights-models


https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49599059

> I would just ban US software companies like China did (I'd obviously also ban Chinese software companies, too). The resulting chaos would end up with some pretty solid EU software companies, the know how is there.

I'm all for following positive examples, as long as we keep democracy. We don't need to copy everything, just the good parts.


Nah, watch this if you have time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpK5HiCKfgU

At least watch this money shot: https://youtu.be/kpK5HiCKfgU?si=YNQBxsn15NxGdQQ0&t=272 (wait for the video to reveal the construction years)

As Max Fisher puts it: American cities have been frozen in amber.


This is such an amazing video. It collapses about three years of my casual research into housing down into just a few minutes. Thanks for sharing.

I'm confused. LA doesn't strike me as dense. How dense can you get with huge areas of single family homes?

LA is the densest major urban area in the country. The MSA isn't dense cause it includes all of Los Angeles County which is half desert and mountains. But the built up area beats Chicago and New York cause it has consistent, medium suburban density, 7400 people per sq mi. The others have dense city, New York City is 29,000 people per sq mi, but the far suburbs drop off.

8200/sqmi on average. Even the single family home areas punch above their weight compared to the rest of the country because lots are mostly only 50ft wide and most all build-able land is put to some sort of use already.

I would be more optimistic but I ordered some pretty solid power banks from Anker, which should be a top notch power bank manufacturer.

Both types of products from them were recalled after about a month for being fire hazards.

I imagine it's not universal but it really made me question the product category.


Just like external AUX-type-C DACs, manufacturers took a trivial feature of a smartphone and outsourced it to an array of disposable device vendors with questionable practices

Yes, and a lot of that happened in preparation for this specific EU directive.

This happens a lot, see Samsung and Apple announcing more years of security updates and feature updates, Apple announcing the switch to USB-C for the iPhone.

Once it's clear the EU will not budge, some big companies will just switch over in advance, other companies will lag.


> Ironically the fact that the howls need to come from the other side of the Atlantic, rather than having any domestically, should tell anyone all they need to know about the situation.

Europeans by and large don't care about American companies these days. They use American software products because frequently there are no alternatives. And most of the news about them are negative.


They also totally don't care bout Chinese companies, they use those products because there are really no alternatives. Apple and Samsung (reluctantly) comply. I guess we know which other companies don't?

>They use American software products because frequently there are no alternatives

Hint hint


Hint hint to what?

South Korea is a very dynamic, tech heavy country and it hasn't managed to push any software product as a market leader.

The EU is bigger, but it's fractured, so functionally it's basically 2-3x South Korea in terms of "software power". And that's not enough to compete with the much larger US juggernaut. Only China has managed to hold its own by simply banning US software all together.

I'm actually all in favor of the EU banning all American software. Fairly sure that after a huge initial tumble a healthy EU software market would thrive.

Edit: I need to brace myself, the Americans are waking up :-)))


Hint hint, if you're European, wake up and make some good software!

The EU needs a real single digital market with single patents, copyright, IP licensing.

The EU also needs easier financing of risky ventures, probably with tax incentives associated.

The EU needs specific regulation to facilitate accelerated scaling across all its countries. This last part is the hardest to do because by definition startups are challenges to big and rich incumbents.

I would just ban US software companies like China did (I'd obviously also ban Chinese software companies, too). The resulting chaos would end up with some pretty solid EU software companies, the know how is there.


You can't have good regulations and also have all the world's evil billionaires pouring their money in. You get to pick one of those.

Shockingly Europe had and still has a lot of money.

Estimated GDPs for 2026:

US $32tn.

EU $23tn.

It's not like the EU only has couch cushion money for investments.


Europe had the opportunity to create a silicon valley 30 years ago. They fumbled it so badly that most euro tech talent went to the US and worked or even founded their companies there. They still have not (and likely never will) implement the general reforms needed to create fertile grounds for tech to compete with the US.

If the current EU mindset existed 150 years ago, they would have banned steam engines because they are too loud and annoying. That's the level of shortsighted immediate gratification we are dealing with.

I don't know what SK has to do with this, they are basically still close to an emerging economy. Europe had a roaring economy when SK was still mostly farming.


You will actually find European HN users who will unironically say that we should have never started using fossil fuel engines at all.

starting was okay but it got way out of control.

The environment can absorb pollution, just not as quickly as we're currently polluting. It's okay to emit pollution sometimes. I'm totally in favor of heritage railways running their ancient smoke-belching steam trains on the third Sunday of every month so we can see them go. Just not every day.


Let's assess that opinion in a hundred years. Maybe they're just Michael Burrys.

Both of you, have fun fighting non existant 0.001% strawmen.

We shouldn't really want a silicon valley. See how much trouble the US has trying to get meta to stop abusive practices to minors.

Not having a silicon valley is a good thing.


The US isn't totally dependant on foreign states to have a modern economy.

Delete the US and China and all Europe has left is 6 weeks vacation.


That's just the world now. Delete China and the US has no more electronics and raw materials either. You wanted globalization and well that's what you got.

Besides, 6 weeks vacation is great. Also we don't need to have so much stuff, I don't even own or want a car, something that's very hard to do without in America. We don't have this exhausting desire to make things a race and to be number 1.


LOL :-)))

Ever heard of China? The US probably imports 50% of its industrial parts, machinery, finished products from China.

Europe also has plenty of big industrial companies, BASF, Bayer, German auto companies, pharma companies, French and Dutch agriculture, etc.

What do you think we all do over here? Wear wooden clogs, eat baguettes with wursts?


> What do you think we all do over here? Wear wooden clogs, eat baguettes with wursts?

Personally I have done both <3

In fact I really feel like a baguette with bratwurst now :P And a 6-week holiday come to think of it.


> Europe had the opportunity to create a silicon valley 30 years ago.

I really like history but nothing like this come to mind, I'd be happy to read about it, what exactly did they do/not do?


Not exactly that, but one thing that comes to mind: Germany was about to switch the phone network to fiber with data service in the late 80s(!), but then Helmut Kohl (CDU chancellor) decided to build TV cable instead. He wanted to promote private TV stations because the public ones weren't conservative enough for him. Spoiler: Private TV stations ended up doing barely any political programming anyway.

Technical note: For some years, the few regions that got the OPAL optical network had the worst internet, but that problem would not have occurred with OPAL everywhere: Fiber can always be upgraded at the endpoints, the numbers were just too small to develop the technology.


> The market for people who want to install Linux on a Mac laptop is very tiny.

Right now, yes. But Linux support is like freedom of speech in a dictatorship.

Everyone makes fun of it and says it's useless but fundamentally the powers that be are deathly afraid of it ever turning the tide.


Sure but that's not really their point. They're not saying that Linux is a joke nor that it's useless; they're saying that the amount of people installing Linux on their Macs is so small that it wouldn't make financial sense for Apple to support them. Knowing how much an engineer gets paid, even staffing a small team to supporting Linux would cost Apple a couple million each year. That's not even taking support into account.

They had a revenue of $416 billion in 2025.

That would be like you buying something at the dollar store.


If Apple doubled their Mac revenue, the financial benefit of Linux would remain the same. That means it would then be effectively half as important for their business, but the operational challenges and risks remain the same.

At some point the ongoing maintenance and support as well as coordination and organizational distraction mean it wouldn't get approved if internal engineers offered to start it off for free.


That's not why they're avoiding it, though.

They're avoiding it because installing Linux (or Windows, even), would actually decrease their income. I doubt people running Windows on Intel Macs were avid Apple Music subscribers.


would actually decrease their income per device, but they would still make money on the device.

or are you saying apple devices are loss-leader prior the app store revenue ?

that's the model taken to the extreme


No, they're not loss leaders, but in 2015 services were about 9% of Apple revenue. Now they're about 28%.

It's fairly clear which direction the wind is blowing.

Also, hardware - software integration pushes more hardware sales. People with iPhones are a lot more likely to buy Macs than people with Android phones. Same story for Airpods & co. I've also basically never seen an Apple keyboard used with non-Apple computers.


Also Apple stops supporting the hardware and the software at the same time. The case that Linux support lets hardware be used longer is a harder sell when the company stops manufacturing/stocking parts for servicing at the point where someone would consider Linux.

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