I’d certainly not say it’s everything, look at all the highly-paid mediocre CEOs. Education has rigorously been shown to lead to higher incomes and wealth on average.
Education is not knowledge either. Today market most directly pays for skilled work that increases revenue/profit. Correlation drops after that. It's a struggle I've been trying to reason for myself too.
The root cause if of course AI's role in loss of power on compensation (coding as a skill is no longer as valuable), and loss of power in labor vs capital.
It's hard to face this, specially for the one oasis in the job market that pays well.
We shall see. My area of coding for a living is SO specialized and SO far from 'skill at literal coding' that I'm making that bet, because I don't stand to benefit from anything else: if I go for AI it will directly relegate me to sheer vibe-coding as the AI will immediately go for abstractions that are more sophisticated 'code' than I know. It'll do them wrong but I won't know the difference and won't be able to criticize them.
That's so worthless and doomed to failure that there's no point attempting it, so I do the coding my own primitive way and focus on the specialty I do.
I can tell you the risk: any sufficiently motivated AI can go after my userbase by simply lying and claiming it's doing my thing better than I am. There'll be people who can't tell the difference, so if the AI is able to leverage more marketing and resources it may well succeed.
Only defense I have is to continue to do what I do, like some artisanal box-maker able to survive because they're doing exquisite work making something you can get a cardboard version of at Home Depot for a buck seventy-eight. Then when I die, there is ONLY cardboard, assuming there aren't people learning to make artisanal boxes.
This could have a shot if we also recommend to companies that, they should convert overall pay to ~2/3 for employees, and with the 1/3 extra hire more people. so every company that opts in has no higher people budget, but generates more employment.
This only requires that everyone take a pay cut to help their peer citizens. I would sign up for this. But would the majority - would you? yes/no - and why?
Someone is not let go with the announcement "you are replaced with AI". I know many teams that have downsized, or are not hiring after someone left. There is a reason why leverage of employees has drastically gone down. I myself am struggling in this aspect.
One idea we have discussed in my network is if as an industry reset we all said CS should become a 2X to 6X minimum wage career. So say 30k beginner to 100K senior/lead. This would keep many more jobs available and open. But I guess it would not be acceptable to many?
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