Could you clarify what you mean by “…will be over in a year or so”. Genuine question. Is it that models will be so good that none of this matters or we will need to go back to older ways?
Is the author accounting for the equity built up?
Cash has to go out whether it’s a mortgage or rent. With a mortgage you are building equity. This changes the true math when you sell (leaving aside your ability to now get a HELOC).
Yes the author is accounting for the equity buildup. They only count the interest part of the mortgage repayments as an expense. Any principal repayments are neutral.
He's saying - and rightly so - that outflow towards rent can be significantly less than outflow towards real property equity given the structure of a traditional mortgage + maintenance burden. And with (a large amount of) financial discipline that delta can result in substantial increase in wealth at the end of the day.
IMO that is different than rank-and-file. My theory is that once you make a certain amount of money you run a high risk of becoming divorced from reality.
Most of tech leadership blows with the wind, they have no firm beliefs. Whatever drives shareholder value. See Zuck. Although I do agree those more to the right have been emboldened to speak up a little more. I think the vast majority of the rank and file including managers are still on the left
I think it's useful to separate "tech" from "the VC ecosystem" and "most of tech leadership", the former being a huge range of people, while the latter two being a small group comparatively.
Not to mention HN is yet another sub-section of the "tech" ecosystem with a small cross-section of VC and startups, although that was indeed the focus on the beginning, I think the scope of HN has grown quite a lot since its beginnings.
Question - isn't P(Hitting | Human Driving) still less than P(Hitting | Tesla FSD) in this particular case [given that if this particular situation comes up - Tesla will fail always whereas some / many humans would not]?
Isn’t the underlying assumption here that supply is essentially infinite (or at least comparable to demand)? I think is the underlying assumption with any such statement. If the assumption doesn’t hold true then I am not sure the statement holds true (perhaps only till there is some supply).
Well that assumes that there are more suppliers available (within the time period under consideration). Over what time period do we assume that more suppliers will be drawn out? An hour? A day? A month?
Given that hosts routinely take their units off market for various reasons, people who have been on the edge of renting out via Airbnb, etc. I'd say the supply increase can be quite substantial. I don't have the data. Only Airbnb does.
This is a case of China trying to reduce pollution. Reduce aerosol emissions. The impact of this is lower cooling (aerosol interaction results in atmospheric cooling)
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