Epidemiology is not putting numbers in excel and running a formula to generate a chart. Which seems like what half the world is doing now. US has already the same number of cases that Italy had one week ago when it had 4000 deaths (only 500 for US at this point). So some data is wrong and you can't model every country in the world based on data that is just plain misleading (Italy). Median age of tested people in Italy is 13.3 years higher than the general population median age, in Germany, the difference is just 0.7. Stop treating Italy as being the only point of truth and other countries (like Germany) like the anomaly.
I think people should be allowed to express a different opinion.
We should criticize and point out mistakes, but let's not demonize.
The world is complex and interdependent, overreacting can be just as bad as not doing anything, what we need to find is the right balance between the two approaches.
If we check back and he was right then what? You, like everyone else, will be elated.
Completely dismissing certain observations early on as 100% wrong is not the right approach. One has to navigate the path balancing the tradeoffs.
Washington state doesn't have a statewide lockdown, I don't know if even Seattle has a lockdown. California is doing the best but there are still crowds defying the lockdown at beaches and parks. Just as much, grocery stores are open as usual and even with most people trying to do social distancing, I'm doubtful you're clamping that hard on the infection, unfortunately.
I think the best is that when fatalities spike here in California, we're in better shape to intensify the lockdown.
The measures that have in place in both states have drastically clamped down on infection rates - the growth in WA is barely above linear at this point (and remember you are always looking 10 days backward). CA is also sub-exponential. Look at the data (in the presence of high testing):
If you look at thermometer data (less accurate, but a good predictor), there's little problem going forward in either state. (but serious problems in the NY metro area):
I've dug through everything I can find. I'm feeling really stupid at the moment, but I cannot find a confirmation of that 5pm start time, though it does appear to start today and "immediately." It runs through April 6, but could be extended.
I have no strong opinion but I really hope that the fact that the US is not dense, and people are not very tactile, compared to European cities will help us.
I wonder. Willing to admit incorrect if parent prediction proves true? Or pivot if not to a new supposition and declare victory? (I'd say 3.5 weeks myself.)
Even in Italy, the National Health Institute said that 88% of the declared "dead by covid19" had in fact at least 1 or 2 other pre-morbidities.
If a 80 years old dies from heart attack and is tested positive by covid19, it will count as "dead by covid19".
The numbers we see in the news of "CFR" for the covid19 are, in my opinion, inaccurate. The number only shows the spread of the infection, not its actual fatality rate.
CFR is a death rate of the population with particular medical conditions by definition. It is a correct usage.
CFR doesn't translate to the additional death rate, but it does contribute to the death rate by unspecified amount. In particular high enough CFR directly translates to the additional death rate when it exceeds the original crude death rate.
In anything Italy is undercounting covid-19 deaths:
The mayor of Bergamo, a city in northern Italy devastated by coronavirus, said on Monday that the actual death toll from the pandemic is likely several times higher than official count.
Giorgio Gori told NBC News on Monday that the total deaths in Bergamo are three to four times higher than during an average year, signaling that the virus is killing many more people than medical authorities have reported.
"We [have] evidence now in our territories that many people are unfortunately dying in their homes or in the residence for [seniors]," Gori said via Skype. "They are not officially tested because the test is only for people that go to the hospital with serious symptoms."
Doctors are also reporting that patients who seem to be improving are suddenly arresting due to the virus. So counting those victims as "dead by covid19" seems to be correct.
China quarantined 700 million of its citizens for fun and it still killed thousands. I'm sure that they regret the policies they implemented right now as they've finally gotten a hold of the outbreak.
Edit: I was being sarcastic here. China messed up the initial response but their draconian tactics worked well.
I thought it was so outlandish that no one could actually believe it. Then I thought about my crazy uncle who still thinks this is a bioweapon released by the Chinese on its own citizens.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/corona...
427× 16 =11102