I think it's possible to know more than just "there's going to be an effect" from history. 1st order effects (i.e. this happened because of this) are usually quite obvious and observable. For instance, are we going to see remote work becoming more mainstream because of this? I think that is almost a certainty at this point.
In simple systems, 1st order effects are dominant.
However you're right that in complex systems like geopolitics, the dominant effects are not 1st order, but higher order (2nd, 3rd, 4th order) and those are hard to isolate -- all the effects are mixed. Also, we can't measure the counterfactuals ("what would have happened if...") because they didn't happen! Of course, historians and writers will try to fill in the gaps with their theories and invariably they're going to be wrong to various degrees and still make the NYT Best Seller list.
That notwithstanding, we can still learn something (albeit limited) from the 1st order effects that are observable -- it's not all or nothing.
They aren't obvious and observable other than your defining 1st order effects that way. Remote work becoming more mainstream because of this isn't a certainty at this point. It took a pandemic to get employers to allow it in a large way, why would you assume that once that is gone you're going to keep it? For all you know there will be a backlash and there will be less remote work than before. Did you think you're going to come out of this with more leverage with your employer?
In simple systems, 1st order effects are dominant.
However you're right that in complex systems like geopolitics, the dominant effects are not 1st order, but higher order (2nd, 3rd, 4th order) and those are hard to isolate -- all the effects are mixed. Also, we can't measure the counterfactuals ("what would have happened if...") because they didn't happen! Of course, historians and writers will try to fill in the gaps with their theories and invariably they're going to be wrong to various degrees and still make the NYT Best Seller list.
That notwithstanding, we can still learn something (albeit limited) from the 1st order effects that are observable -- it's not all or nothing.