> we're talking about saving ~1-2 million people in the US alone by doing this. Several trillion dollars is still worth it...
No, we're not. 88% of people on ventilators in NYC don't survive (in a predictable pattern - 97.2% over age 65 don't for example). You might remember that just a couple of weeks ago, everyone was calling for more ventilators and every company with a workshop started building one -- because it was assumed (a) they would be needed, and (b) they would be very useful; neither is considered self evident truth (or truth at all) three weeks later.
There is no vaccine yet, and no medicine yet, and either may take a year or twenty (TTBOMK, no successful vaccine for the corona family was ever made, and not for lack of trying). Unless you assume a miracle, the assumption is everyone will get it -- and so far, our ability to significantly "save" people has not been demonstrated.
The only reasonable assumption right now is that everyone will get it, and while keeping the hospital system function is important in general, it makes little difference to those who get COVID19.
A more reasonable model is that we're avoiding a 6-8 month reduction in life expectancy, at a cost of (so far) 2 months of normal life. Whether it is worth it or not is not for me or you to decide and obviously depends on your point of view -- but it is clearly not self evident one way or another.
edit: someone is systematically downvoting all my posts on this thread. Whoeveer that is, I am not advocating for or against a course of action - I'm addressing the math. It is your right to downvote without explanation, but if you think I'm wrong, I would appreciate an explanation.
No, we're not. 88% of people on ventilators in NYC don't survive (in a predictable pattern - 97.2% over age 65 don't for example). You might remember that just a couple of weeks ago, everyone was calling for more ventilators and every company with a workshop started building one -- because it was assumed (a) they would be needed, and (b) they would be very useful; neither is considered self evident truth (or truth at all) three weeks later.
There is no vaccine yet, and no medicine yet, and either may take a year or twenty (TTBOMK, no successful vaccine for the corona family was ever made, and not for lack of trying). Unless you assume a miracle, the assumption is everyone will get it -- and so far, our ability to significantly "save" people has not been demonstrated.
The only reasonable assumption right now is that everyone will get it, and while keeping the hospital system function is important in general, it makes little difference to those who get COVID19.
A more reasonable model is that we're avoiding a 6-8 month reduction in life expectancy, at a cost of (so far) 2 months of normal life. Whether it is worth it or not is not for me or you to decide and obviously depends on your point of view -- but it is clearly not self evident one way or another.
[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus...
edit: someone is systematically downvoting all my posts on this thread. Whoeveer that is, I am not advocating for or against a course of action - I'm addressing the math. It is your right to downvote without explanation, but if you think I'm wrong, I would appreciate an explanation.