> The cumulative excess deaths for all Europe in the last two months matches the COVID-19 reported deaths (around 100000).
Where's the noticeable spike for Ireland? Where's the spike for Portugal? Where's the spike for Luxembourg? Where's the data for the rest of Germany outside of Hesse and Berlin? Where's the spike for Austria? (And this is not a criticism of them, but they only track Western Europe by the looks of things.)
Don't know where Euromomo is getting its data from but I suggest to you that it's incomplete.
This NYT article[0] (other publications like The Economist[1] have arrived at similar numbers) show that the cumulative excess deaths for France, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, and England & Wales sometimes far exceeds reported Covid-19 deaths.
Of the countries you mention only Belgium is actually reporting accurately. (As is Sweden btw, a country you do not mention.) Note that both are smallish countries.
As of 14 hours ago Chris Giles (FT economics editor) tweeted[2] "A cautious estimate of the total number of UK excess deaths linked to coronavirus stands today at 42,700" (He updates this most days.) Worldometer[3] currently has the UK on 20,319 deaths. Quite a difference.
In fact, the numbers show that in Europe actual deaths are between 1.4 [Swiss] and 2.1 [British] times higher than the reported numbers for countries that are under-reporting.
Btw, you say that there are 100,000 deaths? EU 27 has 96,533 deaths as of this moment. EU+UK has 116,852 deaths as of this moment. And Europe in its entirety[4][5] has 122,568. (Am tracking these figures using a spreadsheet.)
Let's say that the adjustment we have to make is between 1.4 and 2.1 and let's ignore population size and pick 1.75 and then lower that to take into account that some countries are accurately reporting and let's err on the conservative side so let's choose 1.66… repeating as our adjustment rate, agreed? This gives us an estimated excess # of deaths for Europe of 204,280. Twice the figure you've given.
(Europe is generally taken to extend from the Atlantic states of Ireland, Portugal, and Iceland in the West to the Ural and Caucasus Mountains in the east, from Scandinavia in the north to Italy and Greece in the south.)
There's a simple reason for that: the lockdowns are killing lots of people and will kill even more. That's not under-reporting but rather an obvious outcome of clearing the health system in expectation of a surge that never came. Probably the UK will see an extreme form of this effect as people are encouraged to see the NHS as a sort of public park that everyone has to take care of rather than a large mechanical system, as in countries with private/insurance based healthcare.
Admissions at hospitals have collapsed: in the UK they halved. Admissions due to respiratory illnesses however didn't really go up, not surprising when you consider the small absolute numbers. There is now a massive backlog of operations and diagnostics for cancer that health systems will struggle to clear in time.
There's a story with some analysis of that problem here:
In the past the recommendations of epidemiologists have ended up killing a lot more than they saved, with the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in the UK being a classic example. It's likely it will be true again this time.
Where's the noticeable spike for Ireland? Where's the spike for Portugal? Where's the spike for Luxembourg? Where's the data for the rest of Germany outside of Hesse and Berlin? Where's the spike for Austria? (And this is not a criticism of them, but they only track Western Europe by the looks of things.)
Don't know where Euromomo is getting its data from but I suggest to you that it's incomplete.
This NYT article[0] (other publications like The Economist[1] have arrived at similar numbers) show that the cumulative excess deaths for France, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, and England & Wales sometimes far exceeds reported Covid-19 deaths.
Of the countries you mention only Belgium is actually reporting accurately. (As is Sweden btw, a country you do not mention.) Note that both are smallish countries.
As of 14 hours ago Chris Giles (FT economics editor) tweeted[2] "A cautious estimate of the total number of UK excess deaths linked to coronavirus stands today at 42,700" (He updates this most days.) Worldometer[3] currently has the UK on 20,319 deaths. Quite a difference.
In fact, the numbers show that in Europe actual deaths are between 1.4 [Swiss] and 2.1 [British] times higher than the reported numbers for countries that are under-reporting.
Btw, you say that there are 100,000 deaths? EU 27 has 96,533 deaths as of this moment. EU+UK has 116,852 deaths as of this moment. And Europe in its entirety[4][5] has 122,568. (Am tracking these figures using a spreadsheet.)
Let's say that the adjustment we have to make is between 1.4 and 2.1 and let's ignore population size and pick 1.75 and then lower that to take into account that some countries are accurately reporting and let's err on the conservative side so let's choose 1.66… repeating as our adjustment rate, agreed? This gives us an estimated excess # of deaths for Europe of 204,280. Twice the figure you've given.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...
[1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking...
[2] https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1254105061745098752?s...
[3] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe [5] https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/new/
(Europe is generally taken to extend from the Atlantic states of Ireland, Portugal, and Iceland in the West to the Ural and Caucasus Mountains in the east, from Scandinavia in the north to Italy and Greece in the south.)