I enjoy the Economist because they cover topics well and will tell you their sources as well. (which both validates that they have sources and you can evaluate the base information they are using for their article). That being said, this particular event, or series of events, will change the European Union profoundly.
As with most political enterprises, the EU is a compromise. Much like the original Articles of Confederation [1] it took a very touchy situation (pretty much independent political nation-state entities) and attempted to craft a framework around how they might co-operate politically, financially, and militarily.
Early criticism of what was produced was once called 'a bus where every passenger has their own steering wheel' by a Swiss delegate. We can see the literal effects of that as participating countries, have their wheels apparently turned 45 degrees to the direction of travel. If enough countries do that the bus can, and will drive off the road. (ok that's enough torturing of that analogy!)
Europe remembers what it was like to be dominated by Germany involuntarily. One of the sub-themes of the original EU discussions had very real tension about effectively handing over the soverignty to the 'big' economic powers (France, Britain, and Germany). So there were a number of checks and balances in the final treaties that provide very real limits on what the EU can do (mostly they left in the ways to 'help' and took out most of the ways to 'discipline'). That compromise may ulitmately be untenable and the events of the next few years will test those compromises to the breaking point.
I predict several things will be true after this crisis that are not true now. One, I think there will either be a way for the EU to expell a member or to put it under 'federal' control. Second there will be a trans-EU judiciary system which allows for injecting change (either through impeachment, imprisonment, or both) into member states leadership. If such a system existed it would have allowed the joint-EU leadership to demand (and get) corrective action on destructive behavior.
Those changes will effectively mean handing national soverignty over to a central authority. And either the Europeans will be able to swallow that change, or the EU will disintegrate back into independent nations.
It may be that they reach a compromise somehow, but my expectations that the EU will survive unchanged are low.
The 13 colonies fought a war against a common enemy (Britain) for a relatively short time and did not suffer greatly (compare with Ireland).
Europe countries have been at war with each other on and of (mostly on) at least for a thousand years and while Poland and Russia suffered far more, very few have forgotten what happened to Rotterdam, London and the occupied cities in France.
The horror of the first world war broke one of the most militarized countries in the world (laugh at France all you want, but it was Napoleon who fought Russia). France has never been the same since. It was only a few months ago that they allowed a (tiny) German military base in France.
My maternal grandparents where children during the occupation and was thrown out of their house by the Nazies. To this day they still hate them.
Don't forget the historial rivalries between the UK and France either, though they don't hate each other nearly as much as the French hates the Germans.
Europe is a cross section of old scars and grievances and relative recent wounds that haven't healed all that much; Even the old scars can easily be ripped open.
I've lived or spent extensive periods of time in most big European countries (Germany, UK, France, Spain), and there isn't much hate between them anymore. Maybe in the 70+ age bracket you will find some. Then you maybe have some mild distaste from 50-70 year olds, indifference at 35-50 and some appreciation from young people. If you compare German, French and British opinions of each other with their opinions of Turks, North Africans, and Indians respectively it's not even a contest.
That doesn't mean that anyone's going happily hand over their sovereignty, but the picture you are painting of Europe does not fit with my experience at all.
The worst case outcome I can imagine is that the EU will dissolve, the Euro will be abandoned, and Europe will return to its previous state of decline in terms of competitiveness in the world economic stages. China and India will fill the gap and except for the self supporting economies the rest of Europe will slide into a long and deep depression.
That will be followed by a lot of externalized accusations of conspiracies and general hatred ultimately leading to an insurrection which results in the loss of soverignty for between 1/3 and 1/2 of the current nations.
One 'law' that I've never seen fail is 'Nature abhors a vacuum.' and when the EU collapses, it will create a very, very large vacuum.
It will be far more likely to have some kind of laws as tomjen3 suggests. We can't allow individual countries to jeopardize the Euro. With the worst case that one country will abandon the Euro (although I don't see that happening any time soon)
The EU will not dissolve, that's just crazy talk. The EU is something _totally_ different than the Euro, not all members of the EU even have Euro's.. Saying that the EU will dissolve is almost as unlikely as saying that the US will dissolve.. although countries in the EU are of course much more individual than states, we work together on so many levels that it would just be nuts.
Can you really see those smaller countries go for that type of language tho? The Irish, Greeks, and Italians (among others) aren't ones to cede anything resembling autonomy.
It would seem the most likely course would simply be the unraveling of many of the treaties that created the EU in the first place.
I don't think bigger countries would go for it either; a referendum in France to hand over any sort of sovereignty to the EU would fail by massive margins.
>I predict several things will be true after this crisis that are not true now. One, I think there will either be a way for the EU to expell a member or to put it under 'federal' control. Second there will be a trans-EU judiciary system which allows for injecting change (either through impeachment, imprisonment, or both) into member states leadership. If such a system existed it would have allowed the joint-EU leadership to demand (and get) corrective action on destructive behavior.
I cannot conceive of a country ever allowing others to have impeachment/imprisonment powers over their head of state. This prediction makes absolutely zero sense to me. Much more likely, we may see some member countries leave the union over the next several years.
As with most political enterprises, the EU is a compromise. Much like the original Articles of Confederation [1] it took a very touchy situation (pretty much independent political nation-state entities) and attempted to craft a framework around how they might co-operate politically, financially, and militarily.
Early criticism of what was produced was once called 'a bus where every passenger has their own steering wheel' by a Swiss delegate. We can see the literal effects of that as participating countries, have their wheels apparently turned 45 degrees to the direction of travel. If enough countries do that the bus can, and will drive off the road. (ok that's enough torturing of that analogy!)
Europe remembers what it was like to be dominated by Germany involuntarily. One of the sub-themes of the original EU discussions had very real tension about effectively handing over the soverignty to the 'big' economic powers (France, Britain, and Germany). So there were a number of checks and balances in the final treaties that provide very real limits on what the EU can do (mostly they left in the ways to 'help' and took out most of the ways to 'discipline'). That compromise may ulitmately be untenable and the events of the next few years will test those compromises to the breaking point.
I predict several things will be true after this crisis that are not true now. One, I think there will either be a way for the EU to expell a member or to put it under 'federal' control. Second there will be a trans-EU judiciary system which allows for injecting change (either through impeachment, imprisonment, or both) into member states leadership. If such a system existed it would have allowed the joint-EU leadership to demand (and get) corrective action on destructive behavior.
Those changes will effectively mean handing national soverignty over to a central authority. And either the Europeans will be able to swallow that change, or the EU will disintegrate back into independent nations.
It may be that they reach a compromise somehow, but my expectations that the EU will survive unchanged are low.
[1] https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Articles_of_C...