Nothing I'm seeing here looks like it's going to destroy Hollywood.
I could see this tool maybe being used for generating establishing shots (generate a sweeping drone shot of a lighthouse looking out over a stormy sea), but then the actual talent work in a scene will be way more sensitive. The little details matter so much, and this feels so far from getting all of that right.
Sure, this is the worst it will ever be, things will improve, etc, but if we've learned anything with AI, it's that the last mile is often the hardest.
I'm not sure the little details are enough of a moat. Consider TikTok - people use cheap "special effects" to get the message across, e.g. if a man is playing a woman he might drape a towel over his head - it's silly and low quality but it gets the idea across to the viewer. Think too about programs like Archer or South Park that have (stylistically) low quality animation but still huge fan bases.
What I think this will unlock, maybe with a bit of improvement, is low quality video generation for a vast number of people. Do you have a short film idea? Know people with some? Likely millions of people will be able to use this to put together good enough short films - that yes, have terrible details, but are still good enough to watch. Some of those millions of newly enabled videos will have such strong ideas or writing behind them that it will make up for, or capitalize on, the weak video generation.
As the tools become easier, cheaper, faster, better etc more and more hobbyists will pick them up and try to use them. The user base will encourage the product to grow, and it will gradually consume film (assuming it can reach the point of being as or nearly as good as modern special effects).
I think of it like - when Steven Spielberg was young he used an 8mm camera, not as good as professional film equipment in the day, but good enough to create with. If I were a high school student interested in film I would absolutely be using stuff like this to create.
> What I think this will unlock, maybe with a bit of improvement, is low quality video generation for a vast number of people. Do you have a short film idea? Know people with some? Likely millions of people will be able to use this to put together good enough short films - that yes, have terrible details, but are still good enough to watch.
Sure, this is already happening on Reels, Tik Tok, etc. People are ok with low quality content on those platforms. Lazy AI will undoubtedly be more utilized here. But I don’t think it’s threatening Hollywood (well, aside from slowly destroying people’s attention spans for long form content, but that’s a different debate). People will still want high quality entertainment, even if they can also be satisfied with low fidelity stuff too.
I think this has always been true — think the difference between made for TV CGI and big-budget Hollywood movie CGI. Expectations are different in different mediums.
This current product is not good enough for Hollywood. As long as people have some desire for Hollywood level quality, this will not take those jobs.
The big caveat here is “yet” — when does this get good enough? And this is where my skepticism comes in, because the last mile is the hardest, and getting things mostly right isn’t really good enough for high quality content. (Remember how much the internet lost it over a Starbucks cup in Game of Thrones?)
The other caveat is maybe that our minds melt into stupidity to the point that we only watch things in low fidelity 10 seconds clips that AI can capably run amock with. In which case I don’t really think AI actually takes over Hollywood so much as Hollywood — effectively high fidelity long form content — just ceases to exist altogether. That is the sad timeline.
If you are ok with physics that is completely wrong, camera angles that just don't feel right, strange light effects, and all other kinds of distorted images/videos, maybe Hollywood is doomed. But I don't see that happening.
A reminder: as advanced as CGI is today, lots and lots of movie are still based on (very expensive) real-life scenery or miniature sets (just two of many examples), because they are far, far more realistic than what you get out of computers.
But seriously: like the democratization which made music production cheap brought some interesting or commercially successful endavours, the increased effort from people who could not bring their dreams to reality because of the basic constraint of budget will probably bring some very good results, even anthology worth - and lots of trash.
If you are a creative in this industry, start preparing to transition to another industry or adapt.
Your boss is highly likely to be toying around with this.
The first entirely AI generated film (with Sora or other AI video tools) to win an Oscar will be less than 5 years away.